Don't Expect Nelson-Rubio 'Clash' to Last

This is the sort of headline that will make conservatives giggle with glee, but I expect when things really get moving that Marco Rubio will do little to stop Sen. Bill Nelson from bringing bacon back to Florida.

The headline comes from the Daily Caller: "Rubio, Nelson Already Clash Over Earmarks." But the article simply alludes to statements made on the Hill by the Senator-elect, after a meeting with the senior senator, but Nelson isn't quoted at all. My guess is there is no abnormal tension between these two men. Basic politics will drive them to different public positions on this issue, but neither wants Florida, a state which historically sees far few federal dollars come back compared to the amount which go out, to receive less than its fair share.

It is good politics for Rubio to oppose earmarks. Everyone loves a good government waste story about a $600 toilet seat or a study on the flow of ketchup. That is why Rubio has gone so far as to promise co-sponsorship of a Jim DeMint ban on the practice of barreling pork.

But the truth is, earmarks constitute a tiny part of the federal budget, about one-fifth of one percent according to this ABC report. So it actually will do very little in terms of deficit reduction, or even the feel-good "cut government spending" rhetoric that right-of-center voters eat up like leftover Halloween candy. Plus, the Republicans in the Senate are still in the minority.

Nelson, of course, is not going to pick this cycle of all cycles to abandon Florida earmarks. He is up for re-election in 2012, and may be playing ball in as nasty an environment as he's had to play since 2000. The man wants every project funded, every ribbon cut, every roadway opened to stand as a "Re-Elect Bill Nelson" billboard in the minds of the voters who benefit the most.

The question then is whether Rubio will do anything to undermine Nelson. Of course, there is a old-school rule that incumbents in Florida's Congressional delegation won't campaign on behalf of efforts to unseat other incumbents. Of course, Bill Nelson may be more responsible than anyone for that pact falling apart. Ric Keller in 2002 was expressing irritation the senator was donating money to potential challengers for his seat, and by 2008, Nelson was openly campaigning to unseat GOP House members in Florida.

So maybe Rubio will join efforts to replace Nelson with a Republican, but I doubt standing in the way of transportation projects and performing arts hall grants will be his approach. This little get-together on the Hill is no sign of a deep clash. Rubio has been in legislative bodies before. He is smart enough to know not to pick a fight with a more powerful senator representing his same constituency before even getting sworn in.

Karen Thurman Should Have Stayed

Update: Well, that was just crappy timing. Thurman just resigned. Dang it. I should take this down, but I guess I'll leave it up for posterity. I am changing the title, but the original was "Retain Karen Thurman."

---

It is almost cliche for the calls for resignation to come on the heels of a terrible election. Therefore, it comes as no surprise to me that people are calling for the head of Karen Thurman. A petition is already up, complete with some rather unflattering pictures of the former Congresswoman, but since I have no interest in signing it, I also will not link to it.

My view is this. The Florida Democratic Party, while not in the best of shape right now, is much better off than it was when Thurman took the helm. Yes, we just lost four Congressmen this cycle, but remember that three of those seats - FL-08, FL-22 and FL-24 - were in Republican hands when she arrived. And anyone who thinks the GOP victory earlier this month was a local phenomenon simply wasn't paying attention.

The truth is that Thurman has led the state party through three election cycles now, and two of them were marked by gains for the good guys. She helped the party win seats that GOP lawmakers had hand-drawn to stay red forever. She helped recruit candidates who became national players, even if their time on stage was short-lived.

The 2012 election cycle could be one of the most critical in decades in terms of statewide leadership. The Republicans have ridiculous majorities in both chambers of the Legislature, and will redraw the state maps, Fair Districts optimism aside, to favor the party in races for the state Senate, state House and Congress. Thurman, a former state Senator and Congresswoman who frankly knows a bit about the redistricting process, has the knowledge to help us face that challenge. I simply don't believe anybody else in line to lead the party has skills which can compete.

She has an ideological compass which serves the party well. I can still recall an evening at the Claude Pepper Dinner in Lake County when Thurman, still bruised from her final, unsuccessful Congressional campaign, spoke up the value of liberalism to the cause of government. It was refreshing, and something the downtrodden activists, who just had watched Bill McBride lose his home county in the governor's race, needed to hear.

I know Thurman pretty well from covering her campaigns, so perhaps I am a bit biased, but I think it is astounding what she did with a state party which frankly seemed in ruins for most of the last decade. She was at the helm as the state went for a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time since 1996, saw the re-election of a Democratic U.S. Senator and helped make gains in Congress and the Legislature until this cycle.

My stance may surprise some, and I certain have beefs with Democratic messaging this year for which I do not fully absolve the party chair.

But then, most of the chatter online suggests Rod Smith would be her likely successor. No offense to the Gainesville politician, but he was part of a statewide campaign this year too. As running mate to Alex Sink, he was a central part of the campaign which set our political agenda for 2010, and that campaign was not successful. Could Sink-Smith make up that 63,000-vote deficit with better help from the state party? Perhaps, but I think an easier case could be made that had the gubernatorial campaign run 1-percent stronger, it would have won not just the governor's mansion, but perhaps saved Ron Klein and several Democrats in tough state House races.

I would like to keep Karen Thurman for another cycle. Let her lead the effort to retain Florida for Barack Obama, and to fight for Joe Garcia one more time without a national wind knocking every Democrat down a few points. Let her seize seeming victory away from Republicans who draw seemingly unbeatable districts. Let her have one more go at this. Now is not the time for newcomers to fake their way through leadership. Too much is at stake, and Thurman has pulled us up more often than she has let us down.

Weird Events Lead to Kaufman Declining West Offer

Well, this is bizarre. A series of events which led to the lockdown of some schools in Pembroke Pines resulted in radio host Joyce Kaufman declining the offer to be Allen West's chief of staff.

She made the announcement yesterday, so sorry for the tardiness. But basically, the lockdown came after a vague and threatening message regarding violence by a Broward County government building led her to call the authorities.

Via WPLG:

---

According to investigators, the e-mail sent to the station said, "I am planning something big around a government building in Broward County, maybe a post office, maybe a school."

Kaufman recently was hired as chief of staff for U.S. Rep.-elect Allen West, but on Thursday afternoon, she announced she would not take the position.

"I will not be used in an electronic lynching by proxy. The insanity of using a Hispanic woman to lynch a black American Army hero elected to Congress -- lynching by proxy," Kaufman said on her show. "What they're trying to do is bring down Congressman-elect Allen West."

"We can't tell from our investigation at this point if the person actually meant to support Ms. Kaufman or if the person was trying to derail Ms. Kaufman by pretending they supported Ms. Kaufman," said Capt. Dan Rakofsky, of the Pembroke Pines Police Department.

---

The whole thing is strange, and to me is does sound like a crazy lefty might have been behind it. For that reason, I won't contribute to the wackiness by offering too much commentary on my own to the events of the past 72 hours.

But I will say, the idea of having a Rush Limbaugh-wannabe act of Chief of Staff to Rep. Crazypants was something I had been looking forward too. I guess it is likely now that someone reasonable and sane may run West's office instead, and that is genuinely disappointing.

Will Dockery Save Rail

I have never understood the connection between Paula Dockery, one of the Republicans in the state whom I respect most, and Rick Scott, our new Gov.-elect and perhaps the least useful person to ever move to the Sunshine State. But I hope that connection can help to save high-speed rail in some form in the state of Florida. If we ever want to see statewide mass transit or a reduction in vehicle emissions, this program is essential to Florida's future.

I have always been very fond of Dockery, and have been unafraid to admit it. I first met her when she joined the state Senate, representing a portion of Florida which included my home county of Lake. But I knew her by reputation before that, as Dockery was the greatest proponent of high-speed rail in Florida. Sure, a lot of that had to do with her husband C.C. Dockery's heavy investment in rail, but that investment itself demonstrated a belief in the project. And Dockery's strong environmental record, including the Florida Forever fund and push for better water management, shows a commitment to the environment which extend beyond laying track.

Sadly, voters saw little potential in Dockery for the governor's mansion, and instead have elected Gov. Voldemort, a man who proudly doesn't believe in global warming. Additionally, his hatred of all things Obama has him threatening to reject $2 billion in stimulus-funding for rail if Florida has to outlay even 10 percent of the project costs.

Of course, the presumptions many people are making about Scott's plans for rail are based on campaign trail rhetoric. We don't know how fixed he is to statements he made during the debates, especially when his campaign was so whole-heartedly trying to paint everything about Barack Obama and Alex Sink with a negative tint. Will he wiggle?

This is where Paula Dockery is so important. Perhaps out of anger at Bill McCollum, Dockery became a major player in the Scott campaign. She was doing post-debate media for Scott after debates in the primary. More recently, she was named to Scott's transition team. Whatever else I can say about the Dark Lord's judgment, this was a very smart move.

What does this mean for rail, though? That is a little complicated. While Dockery has been a major supporter of high-speed rail, she has also fought tooth and nail against SunRail, a program she views primarily as welfare for CSX and perhaps a detriment to genuine high-speed efforts. I wish both programs could move forward and create a complete transportation network, but in the current revenue-lite environment, that is too much too ask from a practical standpoint.

But I was excited to see Dockery join a rally led by Sen. Bill Nelson on the significance of high-speed rail. Via the Ledger:

---

Dockery... has been one of the leaders in Florida's efforts to bring in high-speed rail, said she was committed to the project just as she has been for 21 years.

"We need to be leaders, not followers," she said. "You have my word I will do everything I can."

---

And from a political point of view, it is obvious that much of the I-4 corridor, where Scott did poorly in the general election, favors the initiative. The rally was attended by leaders from Lakeland, Tampa and Orlando. And one of the things Scott has to realize very quickly if he is to accomplish anything in his first term is that the time for political rhetoric needs to end right now and the time for genuine governing must begin.

I hope Scott is smart enough to listen to Dockery on this one.

Crazypants Brings Me Solace

Of all the terrible election outcomes that happened last week, the one which brings me solace is Allen West's victory over Rep. Ron Klein. Not because I think he should have won, mind you. Thankfully, I do not live in Palm Beach, and do not have to suffer this man's antics in the streets of my hometown.

No, it is because he it so freakin' nuts. Enter Chief of Staff Joyce Kaufman.

From the Independent:

---

• In August 2007, when discussing illegal immigrants, she said on her show, “If you commit a crime while you’re here, we should hang you and send your body back to where you came from, and your family should pay for it.”
• She became infuriated at illegal immigration after she called Comcast and the recording said, “Press 2 for Spanish.”
• She said at a rally, with West standing by, “Calling illegal immigrants ‘undocumented workers’ is like calling a drug dealer a pharmacist without a license.” She was furious that children of illegal immigrants were educated in public schools and received health care at emergency rooms. “There are people who want to change your way of life, and some of them may be your gardeners,” she said.

---

Apparently, efforts by John Boehner to stop the nuts from bringing too many fruit loops to Washington have failed in Washington D.C.

Allen West is a torturer, a vindictive maniac and a fan of racist motorcycle gangs who wouldn't have him as a member. But he is no pushover.

Let's face it. Ron Klein, while being a very competent Congressman, was pretty boring. For the next two years, we can enjoy the madcappery that is Mr. West, then have Klein come in, promise to never rip his short off Incredible Hulk-style on the House floor, and coast back into office. But until then, let's enjoy this show.

Where State Dems Failed

Following politics means suffering through a lot of ups and downs for anyone with an ounce of convictions, but it has been especially frustrating this year to watch a number of good candidates go down to especially lousy ones. The biggest frustration for me has been an utter failure for state Democrats to sell themselves as agents of change.

This complaint really only applies for our state offices: the Governor, Cabinet and Legislature. For more than a decade, all of these state offices have been dominated by Republican politicians. Yet, a supposed discontent with the status quo was directed to punish Democrats running for these offices. I can't really blame Republicans for winning. But Democrats should never have let this narrative take form, much less hold through election day.

I noted more than a month ago that it was insane that Republicans could promise on bringing change to the governor's mansion. With Rick Scott's election, we have guaranteed GOP control of our state's top office for a 16-year run. As for the Cabinet, Alex Sink was the only member who was a Democrat. And four years prior to her election in 2006, no Democrat was on that board. Come January, that will be the situation again.

As for the Florida Legislature, enormous GOP caucuses got bigger. The Division of Elections says the state Senate will have a 28-12 Republican-Democrat split. The state House will be 81-39. That means Democrats in either chamber will be outnumbered more than 2-to-1. And people say Rick Scott won't be able to push a far-right agenda. I think he will be able to do whatever he wants.

I don't really want to beat up on the candidates too much. I think Sink really did run an outstanding campaign this year, and the final margin of defeat was less than 62,000 votes. We had good candidates for the Cabinet, particularly with Dan Gelber seeking the Attorney General post.

But in the end, it seemed as if no campaign could break through a general noise. An election cycle which started as being discontent with the party in power became all about voting Republican to really show those guys in D.C. But our state officials aren't going to D.C. Florida Republicans have controlled Tallahassee for more than a decade, and their power was only expanded on Nov. 2. That is not just a disconnect. That is voters intent on punishing the party in power doing exactly the opposite of what they intended to do.

Florida has been hit especially hard by the recession, in part because lawmakers and state leaders have created policies which suck our tax coffers in order to give people an enormous number of tax exemptions, underfunded education to the point where our students are graduating without a very diverse skillset but able to bubble the hell out of a Scantron, and created growth management policies which encouraged construction of more homes than Realtors could sell before the bubble burst.

This year, we saw the leadership of the Republican Party of Florida audited and indicted. We had an oil rig explosion damage our tourism-based economy while Republicans were apologizing to BP for shakedowns. The GOP managed to nominate a gubernatorial nominee with a record fraud fine on his resume, a black guy who hangs with racist motorcycle gangs, a Senate candidate who had a home foreclosure with another Congressional candidate, and an attorney general candidate who used her position as a prosecutor to allegedly steal a dog.

And they won.

This is just embarrassing. We cannot allow the other side to control the narrative to this point. The Florida GOP controls all the pursestrings here. They are the status quo. And yet, when the going got tough, they told the voters the handful of Democrats in Tallahassee were to blame, and voters bought it. I have to give begrudging respect to the other side on that one. But the consequences are too great for us to let that happen again. While we lick out wounds, Rick Scott is putting together a transition team. And that just hurts.

Nationalizing Elections

One thing this election brought home more than perhaps any other point, all politics is not local.

Now, to be sure, the demographics of particular districts will result in different outcomes. Despite a GOP wave, Corrine Brown could coast to re-election this year. And we will likely never get a shot at someone like Jeff Miller. But when it comes to swing districts and toss-up races, it seems now that nothing is more important than the national narrative.

The GOP says Alan Grayson was too liberal for his district, but being conservative didn't help Allen Boyd. And can anyone be more middle-of-the road than Suzanne Kosmas? Does anyone represent the demographic make-up of their district as well as Ron Klein?

No, the other thing Florida's ousted congressmen have in common this year is that they were Democrats in a year when being a Democrat wasn't cool.

Our side benefits from this too. Nobody thought Ric Keller was in serious trouble until weeks before the 2008 election where Grayson took that district. We talk about the Jack Abramoff scandal playing a role in Kosmas' '08 victory, but really, she benefitted most from a national anti-Bush environment and the insurgent Obama candidacy.

Today, Florida has 10 Democratic congressman in a 25-member House delegation. In January, that will drop to 6. Yet, this is clearly still a swing state. The only big difference will be that these four congressman were on the wrong side of a wave.