FL-12: Edwards-Ross

Update 3: Well, looks like it's over. Another one for the GOP, but it looks like Ross will be held under 50 percent. Not that there is any prize for holding him below 50, but still.

Update 2: So here is the interesting thing. Hillsborough is where I think Edwards best shot at winning this race lays, and that county isn't reporting numbers to the Division yet. Regardless how this turns out, Edwards was obviously doing better than Grayson or Kosmas because the race is still within 5 points right now.

Update: Edwards is down by 5, and nobody has hit that 50-percent mark. Maybe the tea party candidate is going to keep this close tonight. We'll see.

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This is the one House race in Florida where I am more optimistic now than I was a few months ago. Elections Supervisor Lori Edwards has quietly run a strong campaign, and running in an area where a lot of Alex Sink support is likely to turn out could give Edwards some coattails.

The pundits still suspect Dennis Ross to coast into office, but I think the shadow enthusiasm of the left regarding this race may bring good news. Plus a Tea Party candidate complicates things here, though maybe less then the Dems would hope.

I am not saying we should build ourselves up for victory. A win here would still be a surprise. But boy, would a surprise like this be nice tonight. I'll be watching to see what happens.

FL-10: Justice-Young

Update: Looks like Bill Young won. No surprises. Also, I numbered this district wrong earlier. Sorry.

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Honestly, I'm just being nice. Incumbent Bill Young will win tonight. This year isn't the one when this decades-old House stalwart gets the boot. The best Charlie Justice can hope to do is raise his profile this year and hope Young decides to retire. And if the House turns red tonight, I suspect Young will want to hang around at least a little while.

FL-22: Klein-West

Update 4: I just woke up to some bad Palm Beach numbers. I'm guessing Ron Klein is sleeping right now. I guess it's two years of zaniness. Also, I will write this again later today, but: Alan Grayson is too crazy and theatrical for Florida voters. Allen West, just right.

Update 3: West is up about 13,000 right now. But it is tough to call this because most of Palm Beach is still out. In this race, the county supervisor is reporting 120 of 277 precincts. It still is hard to say if the lead wasn't just in early voting. Anyway, this race and the governor's race really hinge on Palm Beach right now.

Update 2: Well, South Florida numbers are coming in and things are tightening up, but I am not feeling very optimistic right now. Looks like the loony is headed to Washington.

Update: Don't be alarmed. Just 67,000 votes are in. West is up, but that means he had a god early voter machine... I hope.

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If Ron Klein cannot beat the cartoon character that is Allen West, then prep yourself for a night where the Republicans take 70 seats. My hope is the racist bikers realize West is black or just get drunk lost on the way to the polls.

I suspect more attention has been paid to this race than it warrants. West is a YouTube sensation and nothing more.

But if he does win, at least I will have someone to blog about for the next few years.

FL-24: Kosmas-Adams

Update 2: Kosmas has officially thrown in the towel. Looks like neither the Grayson or Kosmas plan worked out. Bummer.

Update: Well, Adams is up by about 20 right now. So much for my hope that one of the the three most at-risk incumbents would survive. Sorry Space Coast.

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It would be foolish to be too optimistic about Kosmas tonight. I hope she wins, and she has picked up the endorsements of every major paper in the district who is naming favorites this year. I hope her fight on behalf of NASA this year earns some loyalty from the space cadets.

Plus, Sandy Adams is kind of loony. But if this is truly a tea party year...

Anyhow, hope for the best and brace for the worst.

FL-25: Garcia-Rivera

Update 3: I hate to say it but this looks done. Collier still has some numbers out, but the county as a whole has been going GOP tonight.

Update 2: Miami-Dade numbers are not showing as strong for Garcia as I had hoped. Apparently, Republicans this year just don't care who is on the ballot. Only silver lining here is that Rivera may get himself indicted before the end of a first term. Boo, hiss, South Florida.

Update: As with the Klein race, it is still very early. Rivera is up by a lot, but few votes are in. And my guess is most are from liberal Miami-Dade County.

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When I made my rosy predictions for the Florida Congressional races this year, I did so because I was so inspired by Joe Garcia. I suspect those predictions overall will prove too optimistic, but I sincerely believe Garcia will pull this race out.

Only part of that is on us. David Rivera has been a monumentally bad candidate who darn near got himself kicked off the ticket this year. He doesn't deserve to walk the streets freely, much less the halls of Congress.

But Garcia has also been a phenomenal and tireless campaigner. A former head of the Miami-Dade DEC and a near-victor two years ago against Mario Diaz-Balart in a seat hand-drawn for the incumbent, the guy has developed name recognition and a loyal army of supporters. I am counting on a Garcia victory. If I am wrong, well, that would be a sign of a very bad night.

Florida Cabinet: Gelber-Bondi, Maddox-Putnam, Atwater-Ausley

Update: Right now all Republicans are in the high 50s. It looks like everything but the Governor's seat is most likely going red this year.

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I am just doing one post for these races. I am sorry. I thought we would have some real contests this year, but it seems the only one which maybe will be an interesting fight to watch is the Attorney General fight. I suspect the Agriculture Commissioner race and the Chief Financial Officer contests will be routs.

In the AG race, I think Dan Gelber can pull this out, and he deserves it, but Pam Bondi is also a good candidate and can ride a Republican wave to victory. She surprised me by beating Jeff Kottkamp during the primary, and I am sure a lot of conservatives will tell me she never lost the upper hand.

I am voting for Scott Maddox in the Agriculture Commissioner race, but don't think he stands a shot at winning. Adam Putnam has the upper hand in name recognition and money. And he was on the air with statewide ads while Maddox was still holding cutesy contests for his supporters to pick his ads.

And in the CFO race, well, I haven't voted yet today but I am leaning toward Jeff Atwater. Go ahead and roast me. I know he was on a board for a failed bank, and that is bad, but I kind of appreciate his pre-BP fight against offshore drilling, and know the Cabinet someday could be the body making choices on who gets to pollute our shores. Loranne Ausley has never stood out to me. I have nothing against her, but I don't see her winning this thing.

Rick Scott's Obama Obsession

In the waning days of this election, I have to say what has struck me about Rick Scott's negative campaign ads isn't their relentlessness. That is to be expected in any tight contest, and our side has behaved no differently. Rather, it is the obsession Rick Scott has with Barack Obama. To me, this is frankly perplexing, and part of why I hold some hope this election will break our way if Sink plays her cards right.

Scott has played video of Sink endorsing Obama. He continuously mentioned Obama in the debates. He has taken national conversations as odd as the NY Mosque and as unrelated as the stimulus to chide Sink. He has even complained the papers who endorsed Sink also endorsed Obama.

But let the voters keep a few things straight here. Sink neither would nor even could govern exactly like President Obama. And should Scott move into the governor's mansion, he could do little about this wicked, evil, supposed socio-fascio-tribal agenda.

On the Stimulus, Florida is required by its constitution to keep a balanced budget. I will assume for a second Scott's views on the Stimulus as rooted in fact enough, a big assumption I know, that his problem with the stimulus is that is raises our debt. That cannot be done in Florida. Of course, some Scott ads talk about how Sink's agenda would require raising taxes. His math is a biz fuzzy, according to PolitiFact, but regardless, Sink cannot raise taxes. The Legislature, require who wins any statewide races this year, will remain a Republican body.

She also can't pass sweeping health care reform, but I guess I understand Scott being squeamish about the subject, what with his history.

So just like Scott can't simply outlaw abortion as governor, Sink can't govern like Obama. She couldn't even if she wanted to, and I don't really think she does.