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Tuesday, August 17, 2010

FL-24: Kosmas In Trouble?

Freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas is probably the most tense about the news of the NRCC buy. Republicans are starting to thirst for her blood, perhaps because of anger she beat rising star Tom Feeney two years ago in a district hand-drawn for the former state Speaker. A new poll by the American Action Forum shows her trailing Craig Miller 44-41. And unlike Grayson, she has never developed any special affection with the left.

Of course, we don't even know if Miller will be the nominee. He is in a GOP primary against ex-Winter Park Commissioner Karen Diebel and state Rep. Sandy Adams, two candidates with more electoral experience than the Ruth's Chris flunky. But if they can beat the well-monied Miller that probably means they can go into the general election strong. With news of the NRCC incumbent-killing program targeting her but ignoring Ron Klein, I suspect this makes Kosmas the most vulnerable incumbent in Florida this year. And since Obama lost this district two years ago, many people such as Southern Political Report are already moving this into the leans Republican column.

But then, Kosmas is still winning in money, and will build up some good name recognition and voter support in a minor primary with former Winter Springs mayor Paul Partyka. This is a big media market, so money could make a huge difference. Kosmas can definitely stick this out, and from there develop a long-term career in Congress. But it won't be easy.

4 comments:

  1. Typos typos typos.

    Also, Partyka was mayor of Winter Springs not Winter Park.

    And this is an understatement: "And unlike Grayson, she has never developed any special affection with the left." The day she voted against the public option while crying about deficits was the day the left stopped caring about her fate.

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  2. Fixed the Partyka reference. Kosmas' record on health care was certainly frustrating. I wish she would take a page from Grayson's book and realize than even voters in swing districts want a representative with conviction and strong values. The 90s-era of moderation for the sake of moderation is over.

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  3. First she needs to get past Partyka. Let's not count him out just yet!

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  4. We'll see, but my understanding is he has barely campaigned and let a debate be set days before the vote and more than a week after early voting started. If he can win, I haven't seen how.

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