Brokering Jeb

Could a disaster be brewing for the RNC when they get to Tampa this year? I don't push much credence in the continued chatter about the Republican nomination going to a brokered convention, but I thought I'd weigh in based on a report in The Hill getting some play. Apparently, some people want to make Jeb Bush the nominee:
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The Bush secret agenda has been a subliminal theme for months with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie as the favored proxy and pitchman. At CPAC it broke through to the surface: Al Cardenas, head of the American Conservative Union, says that Republican turmoil might lead to a brokered convention in which Jeb Bush would emerge as a “possible alternative” party nominee. It made Drudge this weekend.
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I will concede that with the convention in Florida, Jeb Bush may actually seem a viable option in a brokered convention. While I would never vote for him, Jeb Bush would be a good candidate for president, and that is probably the only job that would draw him back to the public sector. But if he actually wants to be, you know, president, this would be a poor route to take.

So let's list the obvious problems here, starting with some Jeb-specific issues. Jeb's last name is Bush. If that name doesn't ring any bells to you, then the Republicans efforts in the last four years to erase anyone's memories of that name may actually be working. But for most people, the name Bush is a quick reminder of how we got into the greatest economic disaster in three generations. Jeb is much smarter and practical than his older brother, but I don't think he can convince America of that between late August, when the Republican National Convention will be held, and early November, when President Obama is scheduled right now to win reelection in a landslide. Jeb could probably win Florida, but there is nowhere else in the country where voters have a solid comfort with who Jeb Bush is and what style he might bring to the job. There may be no candidate who could communicate in just 10 weeks everything voters want to know about their next president. Jeb certainly cannot.

And that gets to the larger problems with a brokered convention. This whole process we are going through? Where we savage Mitt Romney as a wussy moderate, Rick Santorum as a gay-bating asshole who hates Google and Newt Gingrich as a womanizing friendless insider? For reasons known only to those sane enough to stay away from politics, Jeb Bush took a pass on that whole ordeal. But to step in after millions of Republican voters have sweat over which clown to vote for, people like Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and Sarah Palin were not on the ballot. I think that once Republican delegates start to think about it, they will get over the fact that they only have losing options to choose from this year and realize that pissing off every Republican rank-and-file voter who bothered showing up at the polls this year would do damage both in this election cycle and beyond.

Which is why I think a brokered convention is still unlikely.

But if Jeb Bush does usurp the will of voters (not that a history of such action can be brought up or anything), it will be good for Democrats now and in the future. Running as your party's nominee for president isn't something you get to do twice.

Be my guest, Jeb. Get it over with now.

Coincidence?

Funny the order with which these transition emails become public.

For example, the emails released Friday evening, a notorious time for politicians to release news they want lost in the shuffle, shows that Jeb Bush, the patron saint of Florida Republicans, was upset with how Gov. Rick Scott did business from the get-go.

Via HuffPo:
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Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush was disappointed that Gov. Rick Scott fired the mother of an Army soldier who had just been killed in Afghanistan as well as others who worked in the governor's office, newly released emails show...

Bush followed her comment with another email in which he notes that other people, including Carolyn "Freda" King were let go. King, who first went to work for the governor's office when Bush was there, worked in the external affairs office of the governor. King's son, Army Pfc. Brandon King, was killed in Afghanistan in July 2010.

"All three are African American, non-political and good workers," Bush wrote to Wiles.
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Yes, the people trying to find these lost emails are working very hard to get them released as soon as possible. It is just coincidence that emails of a staunch conservative chiding this idiot governor and suggesting his transition team is a bunch of racists didn't get released until everybody was pro-occupied with their weekend plans.

But we know the email scourers are releasing this stuff as soon as they get it. For example, Bush had also emailed Scott before encouraging the new governor to "veto stupid bills" and to slash spending, and also letting the fellow Republican know he held "a desire for you to succeed."

That email was released early last week, guaranteeing it would get a lot of play in major papers across the state. It had the sort of contents that made you wonder why Rick Scott's people weren't blasting all this email out. Nothing in the email was politically hurtful to the governor. In fact, it had a popular former governor advising Scott to embark on some of the most controversial actions he has taken since being sworn in.

But predictably, the more embarrassing emails are the ones that seem the hardest to find, and which get released after most reporters are halfway to Disney World with their kids.

I am sure that is just a coincidence.

The Astronaut v. The Juggernaut

A new PPP poll is amping up the speculation on whether Jeb Bush runs for Senate in 2012. The poll shows that a whopping 72 percent of Republican voters in Florida would vote for Jeb as the nominee should he run. This comes on the heels of another PPP poll which shows Bush leading incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson 49-44 in a general election matchup.

Of course, it is utterly surprising that Bush should lead the pack. Not only is he consistently popular among conservative Republicans, many of whom long for pre-Crist leadership in Tallahassee, but he is by far the best candidate. The next most popular candidate in the new PPP poll is Bill McCollum, who lost to Bill Nelson in 2000, and more recently to Rick Scott for governor this year.

But the big question remains the same as it ever was. Does Jeb want the job? I have said here before that I don't believe Jeb will be that interested in a job in the Senate. Frankly, I think that still holds true.

Why? Because Jeb Bush, in his his heart of hearts, is an executive. He has little patience for the legislative process, and as governor tended to leave that sort of thing to his lackeys in the state House and Senate. He loves politics, but has a heavy distaste for legislating. In his role today, he gets to engage whenever he wishes in king-making and politicking. Since Marco Rubio, his favored Senate candidate, emerged a star of this election cycle, he maintains a tremendous amount of credibility within conservative ranks despite squishy feelings on immigration and the inescapable problem of having the last name Bush.

What could change his mind? If Jeb Bush is truly the only candidate in the field who can compete with Nelson, that could mean something, but a poll two years out frankly does little to indicate that. All of the politicians currently considering a run will spend the next year raising their profile, and given the right mix of political environment and luck, could beat Nelson. It would be easier for Jeb, no question, but it is not impossible for anyone.

But the flip side is that Jeb could also lose to Nelson. The earlier PPP poll shows Nelson in pretty good shape, able to beat anyone in the field besides Jeb, and only pegged him a few points below the former governor. Add in the mix an incumbent president who will probably spend a lot of time in Florida that year with Nelson by his side, and it becomes hard to underestimate the incumbent. The great backstory for Nelson, a seasoned politician who has been to space and Tallahassee alike, along with a Bob Graham-like record for pleasing everybody some of the time, makes Nelson as good a candidate as ever as he embarks on a third Senate campaign.

The area where Bill Nelson is hurting the most is actually with his Democratic base, and there is already a lot of chatter online about a primary challenge from the left. Should Nelson get booted in the primary, it could change everything, but right now there is no reason to think he would lose such a fight. And having a hard-lefty with less name recognition on the ballot is about the only thing that would make a cakewalk for Jeb.

None of this means Jeb won't run, of course. He would raise more money than anyone else, including the incumbent. I suspect if speculation reaches too high a volume, he will make his intentions known early if only to let the rest of the GOP field campaign in earnest.

But keep in mind that in 2010, Jeb would have run the boards. There would have been no Charlie Crist-Marco Rubio drama because neither would have stayed in that race. Kendrick Meek might still be in the House, knowing a run against Jeb was impossible for a South Florida liberal. That race was really Jeb's to lose, and instead he decided to sit it out.

I seriously doubt that he would take on as big a fight as ousting Bill Nelson to take a job he probably doesn't really want when he passed on a much easier fight for the same trophy just two years prior. This is fun speculating, but until Jeb says different, there is no reason to believe he will enter this race.

Vouchers, the Republican's Public Option

As people in the last year tried to label the public option as a socialist plot, it struck me that the system the plan was most comparable too was not British health care, Canadian health care or Nazi health care, but Jeb Bush's plan for educational vouchers. Now that Rick Scott is planning to double-down on the education policy, I think it might be worth asking why the GOP is fine with using tax dollars for private education, but considers doing the same to fund health care for sick people is some type of Bolshevik plot.

First, a short primer on Bush vouchers. The A-plus plan never went all-in on vouchers, but said that children at consistently underperforming schools should be eligible to take government vouchers and attend private schools. As the link above notes, this ran into some church-state issues, though frankly, I think there were much bigger problems with the plan.

Now, the public option. As imagined by Obama and company, the government would require everyone to get insurance, the same way all children are mandated to go to school. If there was no insurance available through work or other reasonable means, then a citizen could enroll in a public insurance program. There was never anything imagined in the legislation about health providers working for the government, as they do in the UK, so the money for health care would be directed to private doctors and other providers.

(I realize these are very simplified explanations of both A-plus vouchers and the public option. Please don't throw minutia at me. I am talking about the basic political philosophies here.)

Now, does anyone see the similarities? For those who are underserved by the current status quo, the government will step in and empower a citizen with the funding to go seek a private alternative to solve their problems. The biggest difference I see is that Bush's education plan actually sought to take money away from schools to pay for vouchers, and nobody important in Washington has to backbone to push a system which takes anything away from private insurance companies.

I can tell you reasons why I think the public option is a reasonable policy in lieu of universal healthcare (guaranteeing all citizens have coverage without letting the insurance giants screw us over) and reasons why I don't think much of vouchers (the inequity of using tax dollars to send some children to private school where other children pay and the problems with not holding private schools to the same standards even though they begin receiving public funds).

But at a time when the right is calling insurance mandates "unconstitutional" and the public option "socialism," I wonder why requiring all children to go to school is not viewed as some kind of tyranny, and why setting up a program that diverts tax money into the hands of private sector education providers isn't viewed as some sort of bailout.

According to Mother Jones, Rick Scott is upping the ante and suggesting vouchers be available to a broader range of people. Call is universal education care.

The publication says he plans to give $5,500 vouchers for people to use for public, private, charter or virtual outlets, and even if parents can afford to send their kids to private school anyway, they can just use that money to buy a new printer at their house. I guess this is how Republicans deal with inequity issues.

There are so many reasons I see why this is bad policy from a liberal progressive perspective. But given the absolute derangement about the public option, I don't understand how the modern conservative can stand for this type of "reform" in education without being lambasted as some hind of Soviet operative breaking into their ranks. I mean, why not just have the government pay people for going to school? Why not force teachers at private institutions to get their checks signed by the state?

But I guess this is the socialist public option that Republicans can get behind.

Listen to Jeb on Immigration

It truly is a shame when a Republican speaking sense is a clear sign he isn't running for president. But Jeb Bush joked this week that his opposition of irrational immigration reforms were a sign he was not running for office.

His prospect-ending position? That Hispanic people not be required to carry proof of citizenship to the grocery store.

Via the Denver Post:

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While (Bush) is sympathetic to the plight of Arizona officials forced to deal with all the problems linked to a porous frontier, he believes there are solutions other than a law criminalizing illegal immigrants, he said.

"It's the wrong approach," he said. "The net result is not much has been done."

Read more:In visit to Denver, Jeb Bush says he doesn't agree with Arizona's immigration law - The Denver Posthttp://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_16782092#ixzz17MpxdM1U
Read The Denver Post's Terms of Use of its content: http://www.denverpost.com/termsofuse

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That's the problem with Jeb Bush in the eyes of the ideological right. He looks at results. The Arizona law is a racist in its generation and impractical in its execution. Certain elements in the law allowing citizens to sue if cops aren't being racist enough make it morally, and probably legally, detestable.

Of course, when Bill McCollum said "We don't need that law in Florida" it won only suspicion and scorn from the tea party-dominated Republican primary electorate. Full-throated support of the law won Scott attention on the right, and ultimately got him into the governor's mansion. All indications are that a new law will be passed by the Legislature this year that looks more like the Arizona law than anything else.

But it would be nice if the Republicans in the Legislature paid some heat to Jeb Bush. He worries such a law would be so broad his own children couldn't walk around without being deemed suspicious. In a state where so much of the Hispanic population hails from Cuba, and who are therefore legal by right of standing on dry land, shows why this law makes even less sense in Florida than it does out West.

We will see if one of the leading conservative thinkers in Republican policy still has enough pull in a state where he served as governor for eight years to stop this so-called reform.

Jeb Out in 2012?

Not exactly a Shermanesque statement, but Jeb Bush told Kentucky TV station WHAS yesterday that he is "not running for president." This isn't earth-shaking, but provides a great opportunity to play "Let's parse his words" to figure out what he really means.

"I Am Not Running For President."

That is present tense. I am not sure Barack Obama is technically running for president right this moment. While Politico reported that Jeb "Says No to 2012 Run," a review of the tape shows he did no such thing, and simply told the WHAS reporter that he was in town for education reform and to stump for Rand Paul in the Kentucky Senate race. The number 2012 wasn't mentioned by Bush or the reporter, although WHAS pretty clearly implied in the question that Bush might be running for president in the very near future.

But what may have been more enlightening was a statement he made about the president, and even the casual moments caught on film of Jeb Bush after the formal interview was over. Bush makes his bucks these days pushing education reform around the country, and the priority he places on that was notable when he said the following statement:

"This is one place where President Obama deserves some credit."

Afterward, he boasted to a waiting colleague about the nice thing he said about "our president." These are NOT the remarks of a man getting ready to challenge the re-election of an incumbent. It doesn't close the door. Indeed, if Obama ever moved toward education reform at the federal level as a major part of his platform, this could open the door for Jeb to "reconsider." But it shows Bush isn't gunning for Obama yet.

His quotes, of course, were peppered with the standard talk of the "incredible expansion of government in our lives" and the extremely hypothetical "Republican majority in the Senate." Bush wants to play a major role in Republican politics on a regional, if not national, level. He has offered endorsements and made appearances for candidates in Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky and, of course, Florida, Florida, Florida.

Someday, Jeb Bush will probably run for president. But as I have said before, I suspect 2012 is not the right year to do it. The Bush brand is still a tattered one, beaten down by eight years of imperialism, chronyism and basic bad government by the W White House. And while that was not Jeb's doing, he gave his full-throated endorsement to his brother's poor policies every step of the way.

Al Gore resisted running for president in 2004 because, as he told 60 Minutes, "the focus on that race would inevitably have been more on the past than it should have been when all races should be focused on the future." A vote for Jeb Bush in 2012 would inevitably be a vote to return to the Bush years pre-2008, even more so than W's candidacy in 2000 was viewed as return to his father's administration.

Besides the fact I don't think many are anxious to return to those failed policies, I doubt that is the race Jeb Bush wants to run. He has always billed himself as a bringer of innovative reform. He built his national brand on the A-Plus education reforms in Florida. And when his name comes up in political circles, he is always touted as an "idea guy" within the GOP.

The Republican party today is running on a message of obstruction. In many ways, the mechanisms of the House and Senate leave legislative candidates for federal office little choice about that. They cannot drive their own agenda forward, and therefore are relying upon scare tactics and a promise to stop whatever socialist tea-hating anti-Americanism which the racist rank-and-file believes is emanating from the White House.

We will see how well that works in the Congressional races this fall, but a message of destruction won't engender support for a White House run. And I will reiterate again that if the candidates Jeb Bush has endorsed this do not win, that won't help him much either if we wants the Republican nomination in two years. Jeb Bush knows that, and unless the political atmosphere changes significantly before 2012, he is smart enough not to run this time. He will have a better chance at winning in 2016 or 2020. That demands a lot of patience, but President is one job where you don't get a second chance. When you run, you win or you're done.

I don't think Jeb Bush is done.

Prospects of Jeb! 2012

The splash on Huffington Post's homepage at lunchtime teases a prospect that frightens Florida progressives and tantalizes conservatives. That is, of course, the possibility of a Jeb Bush candidacy for president in 2012. Sam Stein writes a thorough exploration of the rising prominence of the younger Bush bro, and I must concede it is frightening for anyone who wants Florida to be a blue state two years from now. Of course, any speculation about when Jeb Bush runs for the White House is worthless until the conclusion of this election cycle, but it does now appear to be a question of when.

I won't pretend to know Jeb Bush is any deep way. Through a decade covering the Sunshine State, I interviewed him at least a dozen times, but my guess is if he saw me today, he would wonder from where he knew me, and after three seconds move on to another thought. But the casual familiarity is enough that family and friends often asked through the years what Jeb's ambitions might be in terms of higher office.

There was major speculation a year ago that the ex-governor would run for the Senate, but I knew then he had no interest in such an opportunity. Would he win? Sure. His presence would be enough to scare Rubio, Crist, and maybe even Meek off the ballot. Not only would he have been a favorite, he might have been the only credible candidate in the race. But a legislative body is no dream job to a retired executive. In Florida circles, it was well-known Bob Graham was never as happy in the Senate as he had been in the Governor's Mansion. For Jeb, the Senate would likely be even more frustrating. In Tallahassee he was boss, and during Bush's tenure, he ran the town when the Republicans held greater majorities in both houses of the Legislature than had been seen generations. Bush enjoyed that he could call a press conference and it would prompt immediate action from government officials around the state. While Jeb Bush is certainly charismatic in his own ways, he has never been collegial, and he had little patience for deliberating details of policy with peers.

A run for President, though, is another story. The White House would provide Jeb a greater bully pulpit than the governor's mansion, not a lesser one. He could once again call for legislation and know a Republican lawmaker would have something drafted by week's end. And he would have more minions answering to his whims. The Pentagon. The Treasury. Even international leaders. Every politician dreams of what it would be like to run the White House. As the son and brother of two presidents, Bush knows exactly what it would be like.

That said, I was present once when then-Gov. Bush was asked directly if he would ever run for President. Sitting officials are always guarded when asked about higher office, lest they suggest discontent with the job to which they have already been elected. But Bush seemed then to be genuinely grateful to have his job and let big brother handle the antics of D.C. There was more contention in Washington, he said. It has harder to make things happen, even things he felt should be easy to accomplish. It wasn't especially alluring, he said then. But like any seasoned politician, Jeb Bush would never say never.

Now the man is out of office, and has been playing a greater role in electing Republicans around the country than any expected him to play. While nobody was surprised to see Florida's most popular conservative backing Bill McCollum and Marco Rubio, he has been willing to share his influence outside the Sunshine State. He tossed an endorsement to Bradley Byrne, a Republican hopeful for governor of Alabama, and even tossed backing to David Casas in a state House race in Georgia. Part of his reason for supporting candidates in other states is to further his reputation as a voice in education reform, where brings certain financial benefits. But these endorsements make him friends in other states, something which could be important whenever he does run for president.

That said, I don't know that 2012 is the time to do it. Jeb Bush won't run unless he can win. He knows that, unlike governor, there are no second chances at the White House. He also understands the risks he takes through endorsements that will either help or hurt him in the near-term. Need a clear example? Both Rubio and McCollum as of today are losing their respective races for Senate and Governor. If that doesn't change, Bush's odds in 2012 are greatly diminished from the go. One of the best things Jeb has going for him in a presidential race is a perceived lock on the Florida vote, but if his support isn't enough to get prodigies elected in his home state, with a political landscape so favorable to Republicans, then he will have to sit 2012 out.

And of course, there is W. Even ignoring the monumental unpopularity which the last President Bush enjoys today, America likely suffers a good bit of Bush fatigue anyhow. I always felt the biggest liability facing Hillary Clinton in '08 was the sad prospect of the White House being occupied by only two families for 24 to 28 years. After one Obama term, would America be anymore willing to bring in another Bush? Won't national Republicans want to find someone outside the Bush dynasty who can win a presidential election?

Let me share a story from 2000 about when Dick Cheney came to Central Florida to campaign. I found myself on a local press bus that traveled 100 miles that day, and at the end I needed a ride from the campaign to get me back to my car, and on the way we talked about the governor. Jeb had traveled with Cheney all day, sharing his personal popularity in Florida at every stop. The adoration for the governor at rallies impressed the Cheney people, who by that point were already wondering what the younger Bush's future might be. They knew the governor at that point could win any office in Florida, even though his older brother was in a tight race there.

One wondered out loud if the younger Bush would run in 2004 should W. fail to win election. He wouldn't discuss that much further, though, as a lengthy hypothesis like that would be sacrilege during the late stage of the campaign. So I asked instead if Jeb seemed a good choice once his brother hypothetically finished his White House term. That elicited a laugh. "For Jeb, the best thing to happen would be for his brother to lose," the campaign aide said. "Otherwise, I think America is going to get sick of the Bushes."

Surely he never imagined then how unpopular Bush 43 would be, but his words are important today. If people in 2012 are genuinely seeking change and want an alternative to Obama, that doesn't mean they will be pining for another Bush.

Now if Jeb does run, Florida Democrats are in trouble. The national party may even decide early to kiss our electoral votes goodbye. Moreover, the coattails of a Bush candidacy would be incredible. Republicans statewide would be so energized in a very partisan way, and would come out in droved to vote a straight ticket. No Democratic Congressman in a tight re-election would want to run in that environment.

But it Democrats want that star power diminished at any point in history, they better find ways to beat Jeb Bush's slate of candidates today. If the Jeb! roster wins today, you better believe the man's reach will be longer tomorrow.

How soon we stop caring

Speculation has run rampant in the past year as to whether Jeb Bush would ever make a formal endorsement in the Senate campaign. Today he did so, and I wonder if anyone still cares? Bush, still the standard bearer for the Republican Party in Florida, threw his name behind Marco Rubio in what has become an uncontested Republican primary.

Via the St. Pete Times:

"Washington is broken, and Marco Rubio is the only candidate in this race that I trust to fix it," said Bush.

Well, the only one who won't bolt parties any second the political wind shifts.

To tell the truth, I'm a little surprised Bush didn't do this a bit sooner. His sons came out for Rubio months ago, and there has long been suspicion the last governor was giving tips to the conservative upstart. Maybe Jeb didn't want to publicly undermine a sitting Republican governor. But frankly, Charlie Crist is still governor, and still a Republican.

So what effect will this have? As influential as Bush is, I doubt it will have any. Sure, Bush will probably be standing behind Rubio at a number of televised rallies, but by Novemeber, he would have been behind the nominee regardless. Doing this after Crist announces his independent run takes out the influence he might have had with Republican voters still on the fence about who to support. At this point, anyone toying with the idea of sticking with Crist won't be moved by the decision of Jeb Bush to back the only serious contender still seeking the Republican nomination.