Don't look now, but Democrats in Florida may make net gains against all predictions on doom in House races this year. A new poll shows Joe Garcia up 7 points on David Rivera in Florida's 25th. Now, it's just an internal poll, so I won't go nuts on it just yet, but that's a big enough lead someone ought to commission an independent poll pretty darn quick.
The Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll, commissioned by the DCCC, pegs this with Garcia at 40, Rivera at 33, Tea Partier Roly Arrojo at 7 and Whig Craig Porter at 2 percent. I'd be a lot happier if Garcia was over 50 right now, but this means even if all the Tea Party voters came home and voted Republican, the race would be tied. And while people always want to cry spoiler, I don't believe those third-party voters would come out for a mid-term election to cats anything but a protest vote.
The Garcia camp is obviously giddy. From a release:
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“This poll makes one thing clear - South Floridians are rejecting Tallahassee politician David Rivera's scandal plagued past because they know he can't be trusted,” said Shripal Shah, Regional Press Secretary for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “Voters are supporting Joe Garcia because they understand that he will fight for middle class families and will work hard to bring jobs to South Florida.”
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If nothing else, this shows a great opportunity for a pickup, despite the doom-and-gloom predictions making all the national headlines. As I've said again and again, this is a very winnable race for us. If it wasn't a territory trending our way, then Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart wouldn't be fleeing this custom-made district to run for his brother's seat instead.
But more important, Rivera is a terrible candidate. Last week, I noted he is now resorting to calling Garcia a henchman of Castro. His past is peppered with accusations of domestic violence, inescapable financial problems and an unorthodox history of quashing dissent. This is who the Republican Party of Florida has chosen as a successor to a seat drawn solely for the purpose of adding to its Congressional majority.
My rosy prediction the Dems could gain a seat in Florida this year hinge upon Garcia winning, so I am pulling for him in a very big way. Since the DCCC also has a money advantage right now, I'm rosier about this South Florida race every day.
Keep up the good work, Jake, yours is one of the best blogs going in the state these days.
ReplyDeleteWhen you get a chance, contact me at quinnelk@hotmail and, of course, make sure you read http://flaprogressives.org
Kenneth, I very much appreciate the compliment.
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