Crist as an Indy? Hard to believe, but...

Speculation going wild today about whether Charlie Crist will go independent in the U.S. Senate race. For almost a year, a lot of people have asked me if Charlie would ever switch parties. I have always said 'No way!,' but a couple moves recently make me wonder if he could successfully go Indy.

First let me do a short primer on how Florida law works here. By April 30, Crist has to nail down what letter appears by his name on the ballot. He can't do a Lieberman and run in the Republican primary, then run as an independent when he is denied the nomination. But what a lot of people don't realize is that he doesn't have to change his own party affiliation to run with "no party affiliation." In Florida, what people commonly refer to as running as an independent is actually running without affiliation. It only indicates your standing as a candidate, and has nothing to do with your personal party affiliation.

The other very important thing to remember under Florida Law is that you don't need 50 percent-plus-one to win a race anymore. We have winner-takes-all elections that don't require a majority of voters. This saves money on runoff elections, both for the state and campaigns, never mind the cost to democracy.

Now back to Charlie. I began wondering what was up a month ago when he suddenly rediscovered his love of the stimulus. Granted, it was very strange when he denied support. I was http://www.srqmagazine.com/JMailer/showMassMail.cfm?masID=1440">there in Fort Myers when he literally embraced Obama and said "it’s important that we pass this stimulus package." It was never credible to run away from that. Still, he had been backing away from it because of the primary, and coming back around to his original position was a major change in electoral strategy.

Now he has vetoed a Republican elections bill and threatened to veto the teacher pay bill. That would piss of Jeb Bush, who already has taken some shots at Crist since the health care bill passed.

At this point, I think it will be hard for Crist to win the primary. He's 30 points down, and most likely just saw his financial edge wiped away. That leaves his two options: stay and fight the good moderate fight for the soul of his party, or run, and possibly win, without party affiliation.

Now I've read some liberal blogs suggesting liberals should woo and welcome Crist to their side. None of those bloggers are from Florida. Though I am a lib myself, I have had some respect for tea party guys who say Crist has no core values. They are right. Crist ran for Senate in 1998 as a hard-right conservative. As governor, he has been more liberal than Lawton Chiles. Wherever the political wind blows, Crist follows. When the stimulus was popular, he supported it. Then he changed his mind, then changed back again. Does he have an agenda to implement? I am sure, but he is no fool, and knows you first have to get a job before an agenda is implemented, and that means politics first.

So Charlie does what it takes to win. Charlie can't win the Republican primary. Charlie can win as an NPA. You follow?

That is where the winner-takes-all law comes into play. Kendrick Meek so far has run an almost invisible campaign. He has banked on raising his game after a Republican comes out of that contest bruised and battered. But right now, both Crist and Rubio have far more visibility and name recognition.

Consider this. What if the Crist-Rubio battle was rescheduled overnight for November? Could Meek possibly make himself a contender in a three-man race? I say no. With an independent Crist, Meek will only get the hard-core partisans to vote for him in the general, and that's only about 30 percent. The contest will be all about Crist and Rubio. They will be fighting over the remaining 70 percent. And whoever gets more of them is our next U.S. Senator.

If that's Rubio, it's a definite win for the Republicans. But it's also a win for them if Crist wins. He will likely remain a registered Republican, and will caucus with them in Washington.

Since this is already a Republican seat, Florida Democrats likely won't even feel much of a loss.

And Florida loves its incumbents. Last time we voted a Senator out of office was in 1986 when Bob Graham booted Paula Hawkins, and it took a popular sitting governor to do it then. Which, of course, is what Charlie Crist is now. Despite his low polling with his own party, Crist is a Republican with broad appeal with Dems and Independents.

To me, running NPA is a pretty clear path of victory for Crist. And I've never seen him pass that up.