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Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Brokering Jeb

Could a disaster be brewing for the RNC when they get to Tampa this year? I don't push much credence in the continued chatter about the Republican nomination going to a brokered convention, but I thought I'd weigh in based on a report in The Hill getting some play. Apparently, some people want to make Jeb Bush the nominee:
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The Bush secret agenda has been a subliminal theme for months with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie as the favored proxy and pitchman. At CPAC it broke through to the surface: Al Cardenas, head of the American Conservative Union, says that Republican turmoil might lead to a brokered convention in which Jeb Bush would emerge as a “possible alternative” party nominee. It made Drudge this weekend.
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I will concede that with the convention in Florida, Jeb Bush may actually seem a viable option in a brokered convention. While I would never vote for him, Jeb Bush would be a good candidate for president, and that is probably the only job that would draw him back to the public sector. But if he actually wants to be, you know, president, this would be a poor route to take.

So let's list the obvious problems here, starting with some Jeb-specific issues. Jeb's last name is Bush. If that name doesn't ring any bells to you, then the Republicans efforts in the last four years to erase anyone's memories of that name may actually be working. But for most people, the name Bush is a quick reminder of how we got into the greatest economic disaster in three generations. Jeb is much smarter and practical than his older brother, but I don't think he can convince America of that between late August, when the Republican National Convention will be held, and early November, when President Obama is scheduled right now to win reelection in a landslide. Jeb could probably win Florida, but there is nowhere else in the country where voters have a solid comfort with who Jeb Bush is and what style he might bring to the job. There may be no candidate who could communicate in just 10 weeks everything voters want to know about their next president. Jeb certainly cannot.

And that gets to the larger problems with a brokered convention. This whole process we are going through? Where we savage Mitt Romney as a wussy moderate, Rick Santorum as a gay-bating asshole who hates Google and Newt Gingrich as a womanizing friendless insider? For reasons known only to those sane enough to stay away from politics, Jeb Bush took a pass on that whole ordeal. But to step in after millions of Republican voters have sweat over which clown to vote for, people like Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and Sarah Palin were not on the ballot. I think that once Republican delegates start to think about it, they will get over the fact that they only have losing options to choose from this year and realize that pissing off every Republican rank-and-file voter who bothered showing up at the polls this year would do damage both in this election cycle and beyond.

Which is why I think a brokered convention is still unlikely.

But if Jeb Bush does usurp the will of voters (not that a history of such action can be brought up or anything), it will be good for Democrats now and in the future. Running as your party's nominee for president isn't something you get to do twice.

Be my guest, Jeb. Get it over with now.

1 comment:

  1. Nixon, Stevenson, Dewey, and Bryan, going back to 1900. It's not a long list, but it's not unprecedented for a major party to nominate a candidate who has previously lost a general election. And Nixon even won. Not that I think anyone is eager to be compared to Nixon.

    But I agree with you that 10 weeks isn't enough time to overcome the Bush stigma. If it weren't for that, though, I think it would be possible. A recognizable, respected name, say Colin Powell or Dave Petraeus, would have a shot in a general election. I'm having trouble coming up with anyone from outside the military, though. I suspect that a network news anchor like Brian Williams might be able to do it running as a Democrat.

    --Tom

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