Don't Be So Surprised

I'm not going to say the implosion of Mitt Romney in the past few weeks has been anything short of shocking. Between the exploitation of a foreign tragedy, the leak of an embarrassingly frank talk to Boca donors, the proclaiming of the $200k-$250k earners as "middle class and the delayed tax return release, this has been a spectacular parade of unforced errors like I have never seen.

But there has been a cry among flustered Republicans that this was a year the GOP could not lose. Not that they care what I think, but rubbish.

That last link goes a widely-quoted piece by Peggy Noonan essentially blaming Romney's poor polling on a sloppy campaign. But if nobody noticed in the clown show that was the 2012 Republican primary, Mitt was the best they got.

Does anyone really think this election would be closer had Republicans nominated Newt Gingrich? Or Rick Santorum? Or laughably Michele Bachmann or Herman Cain? Of course not. But that was the choice presented to voters.

Now, that's not to say this list of Republicans from the shallow end of the cestpool are truly the most attractive candidates for president. But the greatest sign last year that the tide, whatever you think of jobs reports, was in our favor was the number of folks who stayed on the sidelines. Mike Huckabee. Sarah Palin. Mitch Daniels. Jeb Bush. Really, Romney and Rick Perry were the only major contenders any realistic Republican was dreaming about who actually threw a hat in the ring. Perry, it turned out, was not ready for primetime, so we ended up where we are today.

Actually, I laid out more than two years ago the reasons that while Jeb may well harbor White House ambitions, 2012 wasn't the year to pursue them. My top reason:

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Jeb Bush won't run unless he can win. He knows that, unlike governor, there are no second chances at the White House. 
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Barack Obama at no point in the last four years has seemed like a loser for re-election. That gets forgotten by Republicans so blinded by hatred of his liberal principles that cannot see the broader view of the president. Let's just check out some conventional GOP wisdom.

Republicans believe Obama is ruining this country by taking it far to the left, yet he has pushed tax structures well to the right of uber-moderate Bill Clinton. Indeed, most liberals have been starkly disappointed that he failed even to go that far. The same goes for the hardly-ambitious ObamaCare reforms which look more like DoleCare even than RomneyCare.

While Republicans believe Obama has done way too much, most liberals, and I believe moderates, feel he has actually done too little.

In that sense, it seems no surprise that the Romney campaign has floundered so. The message of the GOP, after all, is that intervention is the wrong medicine, but Romney as a challenger to an incumbent has to make the case this president has not done enough to fix the economy. Those messages simply don't jive.

So Obama was always a favorite. And in their hearts, Jeb and Huck and Sarah and Mitch and Marco and Fred and everybody viable candidate with some base instinct for the lay of the land knew it. The polls have born that out too, with Romney failing to hold a lead in the polls since cinching the nominations and finally having to share broadcast time with a Democrat.

The growing conventional wisdom is that Mitt Romney with his recent gaffes has lost the election. But the truth is he was never winning in the first place.

An Insignificant Purge

It appears any great fears about a voter purge significantly affecting the Florida election this year have been calmed. Thanks to a highly scrutinized process—and don't let anyone convince you the scrutiny was anything less than critical—Gov. Rick Scott's efforts to purge non-citizens from the polls resulted in just over 200 people getting cleared off voter rolls.

All but two counties (including quite sadly the one in which I live) had stopped purging from Scott's once-mega list of potentially fraudulent voters. The number of voters being dumped now seems a very reasonable assessment of how many people might be in a state of nearly 20 million people who were both illegal immigrants and who had the gall to register to vote. Truthfully, the bulk of the 207 people being purged from the rolls likely never voted in a single election.

The big takeaway to me is that Florida officials who embarked an obviously partisan mission tinged with racism ultimately did nothing but demonstrate how small a problem in-person voter fraud actually is. This has been another embarrassing episode in a state with a pungent reputation for protecting voters' rights.

West's Disgusting Vision of Unity and Patriotism

When the nation was attacked more than 10 years ago in the worst attack ever committed on American soil, the entire nation unified together. It was a beautiful thing to see in a moment of terrible darkness. But even then, as the Sean Hannitys of the world made quick and partisan attacks on President Clinton for something that happened well after he left office, I wondered if Republicans were capable of rallying around a president in times of national tragedy if the president was from across the aisle.

U.S. Rep. Allen West answered that question in a tragically predictable way when he turned the Libyan attack on the anniversary of 9-11 into a chance to assault the president. Here is the bulk of West's statement on the Libya tragedy, made not through his campaign arm but sent out as his official statement as a member of the U.S. House of Representatives:

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Americans need to question whether the deaths of these innocent patriots could have been avoided. The Obama Administration touted the Arab Spring as an awakening of freedom, which we now see is a nightmare of Islamism.

Even more concerning, is the initial response to these attacks last night from the embassy officials of the Obama Administration was to apologize for a Facebook video that supposedly hurt Muslim feelings.  President Obama's policy of appeasement towards the Islamic world has manifested itself into a specter of unconscionable hatred.

How anyone can believe this President is strong on national security and foreign policy is beyond my comprehension.  President Obama has clearly surpassed former President Jimmy Carter and his actions during the Iranian Embassy crisis as the weakest and most ineffective person to ever occupy the White House.
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Understand, readers, that this is more than half of West's statement. To blame Obama, not even the Islamic extremists responsible for the attack and whom West has made a career of blaming for everything.

So much is wrong with this statement. Rejecting the Arab Spring, and in it the very concept of freedom itself, West sides squarely with violent dictators who have turned the Middle East into a garden for violence. But again, such extremism comes as no surprise from a man who first came to national prominence using thug violence and intimidation as a way to supposedly keep the peace.

National debate and conversation should not shut down because of tragedies. But it is stunning that a party who so loudly has shouted for the need for America to speak strongly and with one voice when it comes to international incidences such as this, it is disgraceful for men like West to use the megaphone of public office to critique American leadership with such wicked and hate-filled rhetoric. Allen West didn't criticize the president today, he criticized America.

What this all the sadder is that West is speaking in the same misguided tones as the current standard-bearer of his party, but just as sensible foreign policy experts on the Republican side have critiqued Romney for his ill-timed words, they should also condemn West.

Don't misread this. West has the right to disagree with the president on all matters, including those related to foreign policy. But to use the Libyan attack as a chance to score cheap political points against the White House is shameful. And West should receive nothing but shame for doing so.

Chain Gang Charlie Turns Whip On GOP

The speech from Charlie Crist on Thursday night was an impressive lead-in on the DNC's big night. Florida's ex-governor went on the offensive against a party as offended by his moderation as President Obama's left-of-centerness.

The full transcript is on the Tallahassee Democrat's site. My favorite line?

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I look around Florida, and I see a state bursting with diversity and opportunity, a state that looks like America’s future. When I look at the Republican ticket today, I see two candidates who would break the fundamental promise of Medicare and Social Security, and cut investments in our middle class which are so important to our economic recovery.
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Of course, Crist had many positive notes as well, and some nice inside jokes for those who watched a polite embrace of the president during a visit to Florida result in the end of his political career. But this message was more than just a thumbing of the nose at the extremists in his party who drove him from his seat of power. It was a careful, strategic speech set on making sure Obama wins Florida this Fall.

And a reminder to those especially naive people who see this race as leaning toward the GOP, Florida is enough to cinch this thing for Obama, and even in advance of the president's speech, Obama has been leading in Florida for most of 2012.

But this blog is focused on Florida politics, and there is a reason I am focusing on Crist tonight, not Obama. The real question of this speech for me is not whether it will help Obama win (it will, but Obama is winning anyway). It is whether Charlie Crist is positioning himself truly and honestly as a Democratic politician for the future.

On that lines, it seems to me Crist is still straining hard to appease a batch of Republicans who wouldn't give him the time of day. He cited the governing prowess of Reagan as if it existed, and he still made sure to leave ideological daylight between himself and the president he is endorsing.

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I’ll be honest with you, I don’t agree with President Obama about everything. But I’ve gotten to know him, I’ve worked with him, and the choice is crystal clear. 
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Maybe I'm sensitive, but that felt a little back-handed. And it was less than I hoped for. Perhaps it should just be read as an appeal to those voters who dislike Obama's more liberal leanings whom Crist would like casting pragmatic votes for the president.

But this was less than I hoped for. I had hoped Crist would come out tonight and declare as a Democrat. If Crist is genuinely thinking of running for governor in 2014, and especially if he wants to run for Bill Young's House seat, we need to know Crist will be a reliable supporter of some progressive values. Specific progressive values. When will we get that speech? It wasn't here tonight.

Still, all things said, Democrats must stay optimistic about Crist's trajectory. They just can't let him start direct our political agenda, especially if he is intend and directing it in a rightward direction. Let's hope Crist's transformation continues, and that his evolution can be shown as more than political opportunism. The great fear in embracing Crist fully is that he could always bolt the Democratic Party as easily as he did the GOP.

Let's cross our fingers on this one.

Romney Down Under

As I predicted, Mitt Romney post-RNC remains down in the national polls. He enjoyed a bounce for sure, but not enough to take the lead. More impressive, he didn't even pull ahead in Florida. Via Pollster:


So even in the state where the convention was held, a state which two years ago felt a stronger rush from the GOP wave than most, Romney is doing poorly.

Granted, when you look at the national polling, the race is very close (though a glimpse at the electoral college shows how little that matters). Knock at Rasmussen, a notoriously right-leaning poll, and you dispose of the only poll showing a Romney lead and dramatically reduce Romney's chance at victory this Fall.

The thing is, though, that the Democrats are also about to feel a bounce. Romney did pick up some support from the RNC, just not enough to get him out of the quagmire that is his candidacy (good luck with Afghanistan).

Also striking, Connie Mack seems almost to have had a negative bounce in polls post RNC. Real Clear Politics shows Sen. Bill Nelson with a six-point edge, while they called the race a a tie in mid-August. If this isn't just volatility because of so little polling being done, it it probably because of how the national GOP has so clearly written off this race.

I frankly was a little shocked that prime speaking time was given to Marco Rubio, who isn't on any ballots for four years, while Mr. McGillicuddy was practically relegated to opening act status. Via the Tampa Bay Times:

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Mack, the Florida congressman, was the first speaker of the evening and came on the stage directly after a musical interlude. Scores of people searched for their seats or socialized during the Florida congressman’s five-minute speech. 
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For all the bravado, it looks more and more like the national GOP is ready to throw in the towel on this who election year. I'm not crying, of course, but it is hard to take anyone seriously who says the Republicans are in a good position for anything in 2012.

Opting Against Inspiration

Maybe this is the best strategy Mitt Romney has at this point, but it is hardly inspiring.

Romney spent his time in Tampa refusing to offer a decent reason to vote for him and instead trying to convince people who voted for Obama last go to switch their vote this time. Some will, of course, but I don't know if anybody will do so based on Romney's speech last night.

The line I think sums up the speech? Via NJ.com*:

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 President Obama promised to begin to slow the rise of the oceans and heal the planet. MY promise...is to help you and your family.
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This reminds me of the Internet meme of Odin promising to get rid of the ice giants, then noting you don't see any ice giants. It's a fine point, I suppose, but for a man whose greatest attribute is his ability to make billions in the private sector, it is a jarring for Romney to promise he will exhibit no ambition and pursue no lofty goals.

But Republicans this year have opted against inspiration, and instead choose destruction and obstruction. Even that strategy, though, isn't well advanced by the themes of Mitt Romney's message at the RNC.

The chief message from Romney, and in many ways Paul Ryan the night before, has been that Barack Obama has been a disappointment. Pardon me, but on behalf of the 69.5 million voters who supprted Obama in 2008, No Shit! Pointing that out, and turning Obama's predisposition for letting people down into the central theme of the GOP ticket's coming out party, does beg the natural question of why.

See, voters already punished Obama for failing to accomplish much in his first years in office. That was largely what the midterms were about as GOP voters woke up to fact a liberal was in the White House and Democratic voters realized Obama wasn't that serious about changing how Washington does business. The Tea Party convinced their people to go to the polls and the Obama for America crowd failed to do the same. Thus, a Republican landslide.

But why should people who supported Obama in 2008 switch their votes? Some people are fickle, but anybody who supported Obama's genuine vision for the country knows they will be worse off with Romney in the White House. To date, Romney has offered no viable alternative vision for anything, but the positions he adopted in the primary this year show where he is headed. So does the selection of an Ayn Rand devotee as his running mate.

And what riveting vision did Romney offer during the biggest speech of his career? He promises not to try to do too much.

The RNC was Mitt Romney's greatest chance to capture the enthusiasm and imagination of those voters who will decide this election. I just don't think he delivered. I am anxious to see snap polling to see if, in fact, Romney will be the first major nominee in decades to leave their own convention behind in the polls. But whether that's true of not, Obama will have his moment next week.

Despite losing some luster for failing to live up to lofty expectations, there is no doubt Obama will put out an inspiring speech from Charlotte. Once the dust settles from that, we'll know where this race stands, but right now, I don't think Republicans have much to be excited about, and this should be their moment of celebration.







*I know, but they have his actual transcript, not just the prepared remarks released in advance of the speech and which don't reflect exactly what he said

Authentic Zealotry

Is it just me or does Paul Ryan sound like he's recruiting people to a cult right now?

I'm sorry but I really don;t understand how someone can preach about how man will be judged on how it treats the least fortunate among us, then promote the most aggressive social program cuts of anyone on a major presidential ticket in the past half century.

I respect Paul Ryan in many ways. I really do. But he is without doubt an extremist, not a candidate for which a broad base of voters across the country can rally around. His religious zealotry seemed an odd mix with his cold, passionless political agenda. I honestly have never seen Ryan in more bizarre form than in those last several minutes on stage in Tampa.

It just verified to me that this isn't a ticket as interested in winning the White House as it is spouting a strident conservative agenda. I'm not saying there isn't some value to that, but it seems strange watching the GOP say with such sincerity that they can win this race and then opt against a political strategy with any hope of winning.

Worse, the Ryan speech started to border toward its end on genuine personal offensiveness. Suggesting he was willing to bridge that huge bridge between Ryan's Catholicism and Romney's Mormonism made me wonder how religious people of virtually any other faith would feel. Sanctimoniousness and self-righteousness are attributes certain to turn off more voters than it draws in. Ryan is obviously a selection intended to rally the base, and a better choice than a Sarah Palin or Dan Quayle for sure, but sending this baby-faced ideologue on stage to deliver such a divisive message was misguided and insane.

Ryan's speech makes me feel better about the vice presidential debate than I have since the moment he was first announced. This guy just isn't ready for prime time.

I am starting to wonder if the Romney-Ryan ticket will be the first in decades to leave its own convention with underwater poll ratings. My wife kicks kicking me and telling me I am getting ahead of myself. Probably so. But no doubt any bump from this convention will be weak and be ground that President Obama can erase in a short period of time.