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Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Forgiving Crist? That Will Take Work

I have made no secret in the last election cycle about my feelings on Charlie Crist, and believe far too many Democrats were placing disproportionately little blame on his spoiler candidacy putting a Senate seat out of reach for the blue team. Certainly, though, there are more devious figures in Florida politics. The most high-profile is Gov. Rick 'Voldemort' Scott, a man whose private sector experience should have earned him a term in prison, not the governor's mansion. Now, a new poll on the governor's race is making a lot of us do a gut check. The short of it: Crist beats Scott 48-34, if Crist runs as a Democrat. I begin to ask myself, can Florida suffer through another four years with Rick Scott as governor? Scott is extraordinarily unpopular today, but we would all be fools to presume that will be the case in November 2014. Just as I believe Mitt Romney is a fool banking on the economy to crash in order to make Barack Obama vulnerable, I think Democrats have to avoid embracing a similar narrative with Scott. Jobs will certainly come to Florida in coming years, and if anything, Scott's give corporations whatever deregulation they ask for will lead to short-term bumps in the economy, albeit at the expense of our collective fractured soul. But what of Crist? A man famous for his political instincts did serious damage in 2010, not just to his own reputation but in allowing the creation of a narrative that favored a tea party takeover of government in Washington and in Tallahassee. Crist said the Republican Party left him, but his ego made him believe he could stand alone against a two-party system, and he refused the embrace of Democrats, who would have accepted him with welcome arms and shown that the party was a bastion for disenchanted moderates being forcefully kicked out of the GOP's big tent. Will the party do so today? Probably, but no doubt they will feel like the pathetic second choice of a governor jilted by his former base. The poll actually shows Crist does better among Florida Democrats than he fares with independents, much less Republicans. And unlike the Senate race two years ago, and despite sucking the life out of Kendrick Meek's Senate ambitions, Crist wins support from 88 percent of black voters. For now, I will reserve judgment. That is hard for me to do, but I will do my hardy best. The Democratic bench is weak in Florida, but everyone on it deserves consideration. In my opinion, Alex Sink, despite wide derision, ran a pretty solid campaign for a Florida Democrat and barely got swallowed by a Republican wave. Pam Iorio made a string name for herself as a successful mayor of Tampa. Former lawmakers like Rod Smith, Karen Thurman and Jeremy Ring all have sound party credentials and histories of public service. We would do our own ranks a severe disservice by dismissing their candidacies based solely on Crist's celebrity status. But if Crist made the switch to Democrat now, if he spent the next two years fighting for Barack Obama to win Florida, for Democrats to take more seats in the state Legislature, to rebuild a party which has been in tatters for a decade and a half, then Democrats should consider forgiving Crist of his past sins. But he shouldn't get a pass to the big race. He needs to prove he cares more about a set of public principles than his own ambitions. The good news is there is still time to do it, and this poll is probably the first of several offering some incentive. Charlie Crist can be the Democratic nominee, but first he needs to become and publicly commit to being a Democrat.

2 comments:

  1. You're naive if you think Crist cost Meek the election. If every one of the votes for Crist would have otherwise gone for Meek, then Meek squeaks out a win, 49.9% to 48.9%. But if even 2% of the Crist vote would have gone to Rubio, Rubio wins.

    (I'd suggest that having both Crist and Meek in the race appealed to a broader number of voters, increasing turnout. Consider that Florida's population increased 4% from 2006 to 2010, but the number of votes increased by 12%. I don't think all of that was on the strength of Rick Scott's personality. But that's purely speculation on my part.)

    That said, I don't like Crist, and I don't like his characterization of the Republican party leaving him. If he'd figured that out before he polled poorly against Rubio in the primary, I'd consider him a principled guy. But he irrevocably shredded his own credibility, as far as I'm concerned. I'd be disappointed with anyone who supports him, Republican, Democrat, or independent.

    --Tom

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  2. Knowing the ways of politics, he will probably run and that said, most people would prefer a Florida worm to an Illinois python.

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