What To Make of Cain

I have been trying last night to figure what the Herman Cain win in Florida means, since I feel like I really should say something about it. But honestly, the biggest thing I see is that this Presidency 5 poll turned out as worthless as Jon Huntsman and Newt Gingrich said it would be.

Rick Scott predicted beforehand that the winner of the straw poll would become the nominee. But that was when he figured Rick Perry would win, and it seems he has been looking for a good reason to endorse Rick Perry (please, oh please make yourself an albatross around that Texan's neck). Since Herman Cain won, though, I think anyone would be foolish to say that guarantees the nomination. Rather, this thing just gives Cain enough steam to keep his campaign doors open for a few extra weeks.

In truth, none of this is going to matter once the real primaries and caucuses begin. The greatest demonstration of the polls meaninglessness is the rapid implosion of Michele Bachmann two weeks after winning the Iowa straw poll. Will Cain similarly implode? He seems less gaffe-prone, so probably not, but he also seems highly unlikely to become the nominee.

I tend to think Cain is running for running mate right now, but willingly concede it is silly to ever run for running mate. That is ultimately a decision of the nominee. But one lasting impact of this straw poll win is a demonstration Cain can appeal to Florida voters. Since many Republican pundits have been anxious to preemptively name Marco Rubio as the running mate, this likely takes a huge argument in favor of Rubio (that he would help win Florida) off the scales should it come down to a choice between Cain and Rubio.

Of course, that brings to mind what seems to this liberal observer what may be the best take-away. Between the birthers and the more-rabid-than-justified rantings of the tea party, it has seemed obvious in the last few years that racism, at least passive racism, was more of a problem for Obama than anyone wanted to say out loud immediately after his election. But as a black man wins the Florida straw poll, the first such poll held in the South and a poll which was only supported by the most conservative and most involved voters, it does seem the most active Republicans are anxious to make racism a part of the past. Is there a little tokenism at play? Likely, but then there is some place for that. Generally, it seems that Cain won because the party is hungry for a CEO with private sector credentials instead of a politician with a government resume.

I don't want to suggest too much should be read into a truly insignificant poll. This isn't a bellweather on where the state is headed next November. It isn't an indicator who the Republican nominee would be. But it offers a taste of what Republican party regulars in Florida want out of a nominee. And they don't want to play it safe with a mealy-mouthed Romney or play to the rabid base with a tough-talkin' extra-dumb Perry.

And that likely means this field is still more wide open than it appeared over the last two weeks.