The Huntsman Implosion

It was an interesting choice when ex-Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman decided to open his presidential campaign in Orlando, as opposed to his home state of Utah or in Washington, D.C., but I always had the sense he was giving up more than he gained operating out of Florida. A Politico piece today touches on the same sense:

---
Orlando, Florida is nearly 2,000 miles away from Salt Lake City as the crow flies, about as far as you can get from Jon Huntsman’s old office in the Utah statehouse without dropping off the continental United States entirely.

Huntsman’s recent decision to headquarter his campaign in Florida makes sense for logistical and political reasons but the location—and some recent remarks about his faith — have combined to produce a sharp reaction from the Mormon Establishment, solidifying the impression for many of the former governor’s constituents that he plans to keep his distance in more ways than one.
---

The article goes on to speak more about Huntsman's awkward distancing between himself and the Church of Latter-Day Saints than it does on his move to the Sunshine State, which really only gets some lip service at the end where politicos concede Florida is a better place to run a campaign than Utah. But the move feeds into a larger narrative that is growing around Huntsman on the web - that he is an untrustworthy phony. Moving his campaign to the theme park capital of the world only makes that narrative too easy to write.

The question isn't whether Florida is a good place to run a campaign. It is. This is going to be a swing state, assuming Obama doesn't just wipe the field in 2012. There could be a hot Senate race (though I have yet to see a truly intimidating candidate jump in). If the GOP has a shot at taking the White House, it will have to compete here, and will probably need to win. This is the fourth-largest state in the union, and still has so many people coming and going between election cycles that pols need to constantly rebuild the base. There is money in Florida, and most importantly, there are 29 electoral college votes in play. This is why the 2012 GOP Convention will be held in Tampa.

But weighing these benefits presumes Huntsman will be the nominee. He has to win a primary first, and the national parties have made very clear they won't let Florida have a meaningful role in selecting the party nominee. He is currently tanking in polls, not surprising since he has never been a significant national stage player on domestic issues. And even Obama-hating blogs have taken a major issue with Huntsman effectively beginning his run for president while serving the current administration.

All this is to say Huntsman has a lot to worry about before worrying if he can win Florida in November of 2012.

If he can't stand campaigning from Salt Lake City, he should work from D.C., where he has access to fundraisers and campaign gurus who could justify the decision to leave his home state behind.

But right now, Huntsman looks like a fake who was lying about his own ambitions while representing the United States interests to China, doesn't want to branded as a Mormon and wants to high-tail it from Utah, the state which put him in its governor's mansion and provided him the most credible perch from which to launch a presidential campaign.

At least he is helping our local economy a little. But I wouldn't expect the jobs created in Orlando by the Huntsman campaign to be permanent ones.