GOP Should Sacrifice Rivera

I know. Why should they care what I have to say. But with the entry of Luis Garcia into the race, the writing on the wall is getting more clear. A state House member who lives outside the district is considered a viable Democratic contender for this seat because it seems inevitable things will blow our way this time.

State lawmakers involved in redistricting next year have a choice: draw a seat that is more Republican-friendly by absorbing more of Collier County in order to protect scandal machine David Rivera, or shift this seat more in the direction of Miami-Dade so it becomes more fertile ground. Now, Rivera is so dirty I expect him to draw credible challenges from within his own party, but unless he gets removed from office before the candidate slate is set, he has to be a favorite to be his party's nominee. If that happens, he will lose in November regardless of whether this seat tilts GOP or not.

Federal law doesn't require candidates for Congress to live in their districts. It is just generally a good idea in terms of building a political base. As long as this race is a referendum on the embarrassment that is David Rivera, an outsider can take this election and move in later.

Now, I expect Luis Garcia will face some opposition in the Democratic primary as well. Joe Garcia, whom I thought did an admirable job running against a tide last year, seems an obvious choice to make a run. Depending how this district takes shape, I think a number of other prominent Dems will come out of the woodwork. But a contested primary is good for the party challenging an incumbent. It garners press, makes voters pay attention and fall in love with candidates early, and creates a sense that the primary is where the real contest is that cycle.

From Rivera's statement to the Miami Herald (follow the above link), he has no plans of backing out of this contest except by force.

GOP leaders in Tallahassee can give up this seat to the blue team and make other seats safer. I am sure Republicans would like Connie Mack's district to be all the more safer, especially since speculation is beginning again that he may make a post-Haridolopos run for Senate.

Cut your losses. Toss Rivera where he belongs, in the annals of history.